By Jennifer N. Conrad, Managing Editor, Arizona Ascent
Editor’s Note
As Managing Editor of Arizona Ascent, my job is to cut through the noise. And lately, the noise has been loud: headlines warning that Arizona’s housing markets are “plummeting.”
Take Cochise County. If you read the national story, you’d assume the whole region is sliding downhill. But step into Sierra Vista, and you’ll find buyers competing hard for homes that sell in under two months. Drive 45 minutes east to Douglas, and it feels like another world, listings linger for more than 130 days.
That’s the real story. Arizona doesn’t have one market. It has dozens, each moving at its own rhythm.
Recently, GoBankingRates published an article titled “ Four Arizona Housing Markets That Have Plummeted in Value Recently — Will They Recover?” (Read it here).
The piece points to steep three-year declines: Greenlee County down 20.5%, Pinal down 13.2%, Maricopa down 9.3%, Mohave down 8.8%. On the surface, those numbers sound alarming. But that headline misses the nuance our readers deserve.
What Is the Market Action Index?
Before diving into the local picture, it’s important to define one of the key metrics we track: the Market Action Index (MAI).
It measures supply versus demand. An MAI over 30 signals a seller’s market, while anything under 30 indicates a buyer’s market.
Cochise County: Two Cities, Two Realities
In Sierra Vista, the county’s largest city, the numbers are strong:
- Median list price: $343,850
- MAI: 48 — a strong seller’s market
- Median days on market: 56
“Homes in Sierra Vista are moving fast,” says Jaki Underwood, Realtor®. “We’re seeing real competition, even as nearby Douglas feels like a completely different market.”
In Douglas, the numbers tell another story: median list price $248,000, MAI 32, and homes often sit for 130+ days. Same county, opposite realities.
Lesson: County averages can’t capture these contrasts.
Yuma County: Not Collapsing, Just Complex
Nationally, Yuma is cast as a market in decline. But city-level data shows it’s far more fragmented:
- Yuma city: Median list price $375,000, MAI 32, with a quarter of listings seeing price cuts.
- San Luis: Median list price $390,000, MAI 56 — one of Arizona’s hottest sub-markets, though only two homes are listed.
- Somerton: Median list price $393,500, MAI 33, balanced but slower-moving.
“Yuma County isn’t collapsing,” Jaki explains. “It’s fragmented. Some markets are plateauing, some are heating, and the county average hides those contrasts.”
Lesson: Don’t confuse balance with decline.
Mohave County: Vacation Homes vs. Local Living
When most people think of Mohave housing, they think of Lake Havasu City, a resort hub built on vacation homes and rentals. September 2025 data shows a median list price of $465,541. Homes linger longer, but prices remain elevated thanks to lifestyle buyers.
GoBankingRates highlighted Mohave’s –8.8% decline since 2022. But the county isn’t one story, it’s three:
- Lake Havasu City: Median list price $465,541, MAI 35. Cooling, but stable.
- Bullhead City: Median list price $389,900, MAI 33. Plateauing, with buyers pressing for concessions.
- Kingman: Median list price $306,250, MAI 37. More stable than the county headline suggests.
“Mohave is a perfect example of why county averages don’t tell the whole truth,” Jaki says. “Lake Havasu’s vacation-home dynamic is nothing like Kingman’s commuter market or Bullhead’s riverfront neighborhoods.”
Lesson: Different economies drive different markets.
Pinal County: Buyers in the Driver’s Seat
Pinal County shows one of the largest three-year dips, but city markets tell a softer story:
- Casa Grande: Median list price $359,900, MAI 34 — leverage favors buyers, but homes are still moving.
- Maricopa (city): Median list price $375,000, MAI 32, balanced but slower.
- Apache Junction: Median list price $439,947, MAI 35, with rising inventory.
Lesson: Pinal isn’t crashing, it’s recalibrating.
Maricopa County: Still the Giant
Maricopa County is always the headline, home to Phoenix and its booming suburbs. Yes, prices are down 9% from the 2022 peak. But drill down:
- Gilbert & Chandler: Median list prices between $575,000 and $652,000, MAI 39 — some of the strongest in the Valley.
- Phoenix: Median list price $525,000, MAI 37, with more than 2,700 active listings and 51% seeing price cuts.
“East Valley is still a seller’s edge, even if half the listings are cutting prices,” Jaki notes. “That’s not collapse, that’s the market normalizing.”
Lesson: In Arizona’s largest county, strength varies by city.
What This Means for You
National averages tell us where we’ve been. City-level data tells us where we are. And for Arizona, the truth is this:
- For Buyers: Negotiation power is real in Pinal, Mohave, and Yuma city. Look for inventory and price cuts.
- For Sellers: Sierra Vista, San Luis, Gilbert, and Chandler still lean your way. Price it right, and buyers will come.
- For Investors: Watch Lake Havasu’s vacation market and Phoenix’s balance point. These aren’t collapsing; they’re recalibrating.
As Jaki Underwood, Realtor®, told me: “Don’t mistake county averages for the full picture. One city can be sizzling while another slows to a crawl.”
That’s the story behind the numbers and it’s the story Arizona Ascent is committed to telling.
