Phoenix buyers and homeowners are discovering that strategy, not timing, creates real advantage in today’s shifting mortgage market.
I’m honored to step in as the Mortgage Editor for Arizona Ascent. Each month, I’ll break down mortgage and housing trends, translate them into real-life decisions, and share the conversations I’m having daily with buyers, homeowners, and investors across the Phoenix Valley. Because behind every rate, trend, and headline, there’s a real choice someone is trying to make.
Phoenix isn’t just where I work—it’s home. Born and raised in the East Valley, I’ve lived the highs and lows of this market firsthand. I began my mortgage career in 2020 in San Diego, right as COVID reshaped everything. Since then, I’ve helped hundreds of individuals and families navigate everything from record-low interest rates to one of the fastest rate increases in recent history.
Through it all, one lesson stands out: real estate isn’t just a transaction. It shapes how people live, where they spend their time, and how they build their future.
What’s Happening Now
Earlier this March, mortgage rates briefly hit their lowest levels in four years, sparking optimism and activity. Since then, rates ticked slightly higher, influenced by global uncertainty—including rising tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices.
When uncertainty rises, the bond market reacts—and mortgage rates follow.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is patient. Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear there’s no easy path forward. The labor market is softening slightly, while inflation remains mixed. Core PCE sits at roughly 3.1%, keeping the Fed from making aggressive moves.
The result? Rates aren’t falling fast—but they aren’t spiking the way we’ve seen before. For buyers and homeowners, that creates opportunity—but only if you know how to navigate it.
Where Opportunity Lives
Housing momentum is picking up. Existing home sales increased in February, and nationwide inventory is around 1.29 million homes. While still below historical norms, this shift gives buyers more options—and more negotiating power.
New construction is also starting to rebound, which is key after years of tight supply. More homes coming to market means more opportunities for buyers who have been waiting.
Here in Phoenix, one of the biggest advantages right now is seller concessions. Sellers are offering flexibility—helping with closing costs or contributing toward rate buy-downs. Structured strategically, these concessions can reduce upfront costs and improve long-term affordability.
A Real Conversation
I recently worked with Jeff and Amanda, a couple navigating a familiar question: Should we upgrade now, or wait for a better rate?
They bought their first home during the pandemic when rates were historically low. Like many homeowners, they hesitated to move because they didn’t want to give that rate up. At the same time, their life had evolved—they needed more space.
Rather than focusing solely on the interest rate, we looked at the full picture. By structuring their purchase with seller concessions covering a significant portion of closing costs, they preserved cash, reduced upfront expenses, and moved into a home that fit their current lifestyle.
They didn’t wait for the “perfect rate.” They made a strategic decision, and now they’re settled into their next chapter here in Phoenix.
The Takeaway
This market isn’t about perfectly timing interest rates. It’s about understanding your options—and knowing how to use them. Rates will change. Headlines will shift. But the people who move forward with clarity and strategy are the ones who create real advantage. If there’s one thing I hope this column becomes, it’s a resource you can rely on—whether you’re actively moving, considering an upgrade, or simply trying to stay informed.
Markets change—but the right move is always yours to make.
About the Author
Helping Phoenix families become homeowners and build long-term wealth, Noah Shurtliff simplifies the mortgage process so clients can make confident decisions (recognized as a top-growing loan officer in 2021).
Phoenix-born and Valley-raised, he also leads The Social Entrepreneur. Ready to make your next move? Contact Noah to explore your options.
