By Jaki Underwood, Editor-in-Chief
It’s easy to think the Arizona real estate market is just about million-dollar mansions and headlines about bidding wars—or the lack of them. But this market is speaking its own language. If you want to understand where we’re going, you need to learn how to listen.
Every number, every listing, every lagging luxury home tells a story. This month, our team took a deep dive into the data across 24 cities in Maricopa County. The takeaway? This market is no longer about shock or drama. It’s about strategy. And it rewards those who know how to read between the lines.
Let’s walk through what we’re seeing, what it means, and how you can get smart fast—whether you’re buying, selling, or advising others in Arizona real estate.
The Art of Knowing Your Lane
There are three, and each play by its own rules: luxury, mid-range, and affordable.In a market as big and diverse as Greater Phoenix, one of the biggest mistakes people make is treating all single family homes and all cities the same. But there is no single market. There are three, and each play by its own rules: luxury, mid-range, and affordable.
Let’s break down what these numbers mean, and why they matter:
What is MAI?
The Market Action Index (MAI) is a proprietary measure that tells us whether a local real estate market is favoring buyers or sellers. It’s like a temperature check. The higher the number, the hotter the market. A score above 30 suggests sellers have the upper hand; below 30, it’s a buyer’s market.
So, when you see a Tolleson MAI of 49, that means sellers are commanding attention—and likely offers. But a Paradise Valley MAI of 29? That’s a red flag for sellers to adjust expectations.
What is DOM?
Days on Market (DOM) measures how long a home stays active before it goes under contract. It’s a direct indicator of market speed and buyer urgency.
- 30–45 days: Fast-moving.
- 45–90 days: Balanced to slow.
- 90+ days: Over-supplied or over-priced.
Now let’s pair that insight with our three major segments:
Affordable Segment (< $500K)
- DOM: 89 days
- Buyers are active, but cautious. Inventory is tight, and when homes are priced right, they move.
Mid-Range ($500K–$999K)
- DOM: 80 days
- This is Arizona’s volume zone. Homes here are attracting attention, especially in newer communities and walkable cities.
Luxury ($1M+)
Homes at this level often require precision marketing, patience, and pricing strategy.
DOM: 127 days
By understanding what the market action index and days on market, we give them more than just numbers—we give them perspective. The same house in two different zip codes can tell two very different stories depending on the numbers.
Tempe, Tolleson, and the Unexpected Stars
When you talk to agents working in the trenches, they’ll tell you: the places moving fastest aren’t always the ones you expect. Take Tempe—median days on market is just 35 days, down from 50 earlier this year. Homes don’t linger long here, especially with an MAI hovering around 39.
Or look at Tolleson. With an average list price around $430K and only 75 homes on the market, it holds one of the highest MAIs in the region at 49. That’s hotter than most of Scottsdale. And yet, how often do you hear it mentioned on real estate panels?
This is a moment to look past the obvious zip codes. Buyers are adapting, pushing into value-first markets where their dollar stretches and the competition is fierce. Sellers, meanwhile, need to understand that just being in a hot city isn’t enough—price, condition, and timing matter more than ever.
The Luxury Paradox
Now let’s talk about the shiny stuff. Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Carefree—these are names that command attention, and for good reason. Paradise Valley’s median list price this month? $6.2 million. Its price per square foot? $944.
But here’s the flip side: it also has one of the lowest MAIs (29) and the longest median days on market (121+). These homes are spectacular—but they’re also sitting. Why?
Buyers at the top end are cautious, deliberate, and often have other markets to consider. the margin for pricing error is razor thin. Overprice by even 2–3%, and your buyer disappears for months. In fact, more than 40% of luxury listings undergo at least one price cut before selling.
Luxury in Arizona is more about negotiation, brand, and patience than speed. And if you’re a seller in this category, your best asset is a sharp agent and a strategic entry price.
The Psychology of Price Cuts
Here’s something we’re watching closely: across the board, price cuts are becoming more common—especially in markets with longer DOM and excess inventory. Take Phoenix: 3,130 active listings, a healthy MAI of 39, but roughly half of those listings are slashing prices.
Sellers are starting too high, assuming the buyer pool will catch up. But that’s not what’s happening. Rates have stabilized, but affordability hasn’t. And buyers? They’ve been burned before. They know what to watch.
If you’re pricing a home today, the smartest thing you can do is look at two numbers:
- Your city’s MAI
- Your market segment’s DOM average
Match those with your own goals, and lead with clarity—not hope.
Your Map, Not Your Crystal Ball
Markets are living things. They breathe, contract, pulse, stall. And what we’re seeing now is a market that’s settling—not surging. There’s opportunity everywhere if you know what lane you’re in and what rules govern it.
Are you in Tempe, where speed rules? Tolleson, where scarcity drives leverage? Scottsdale, where patience is currency?
There’s no one-size-fits-all advice anymore. But that’s actually good news. Because it means you can win with intelligence.
So study up. Ask better questions. Talk to better agents. And keep reading—we’re here every month to help you make sense of it all.
