By Jaki Underwood, Managing Editor
It’s hard to miss the bold headline that recently ran in Newsweek on May 1st, 2025:
“Phoenix Housing Market Faces ‘Mass Sell-Off’ as Home Values Plunge.”
If you’re a homeowner, a buyer, or simply someone keeping an eye on the market, you probably felt a jolt reading those words. Mass sell-off? Plunging values? It sounds catastrophic. But here’s the truth: the market isn’t collapsing—it’s correcting. And that distinction matters.
As someone who’s worked every corner of this market—Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Mesa, Peoria, Glendale—I’ve seen housing cycles up close. What’s happening right now isn’t a freefall. It’s a shift toward balance. And beneath the headlines, the data tells a much different story.
Let’s unpack it—because you deserve more than a soundbite.
The Numbers: A Market in Motion, Not Mayhem
One of the main claims in the Newsweek article comes from housing analyst Nick Gerli, who warns of a “mass sell-off” and “nonexistent” buyer demand. But the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) tells a more nuanced story for April 2025.
Active listings are indeed up—
Phoenix has 63.2% more homes on the market compared to last year. Gilbert? A whopping 104.6% increase. That might sound scary, but it actually means buyers have more choices. This is what a healthier, more negotiable market looks like.
For sellers, yes—there’s more competition. But that just means pricing and presentation matter more than ever. Homes are still moving.
In fact, Phoenix sales are up 2.8% year-over-year.
Peoria sales rose 5.6%. That’s not the behavior of a “nonexistent” market. While some areas like Scottsdale saw a modest 5.3% dip, that’s a far cry from a crash. We’re seeing strategic, selective buyers—not scared ones.
Prices Are Shifting—Not Plummeting
Gerli cites a 7.4% drop from the June 2022 price peak to March 2025, calling it a “nose-dive.” But let’s zoom in on current numbers:
- Phoenix prices per square foot are down just 4.6% year-over-year.
- Paradise Valley? Up 3.8%.
- Scottsdale? Up 1.6%.
Luxury buyers are still buying—and paying more. In more affordable areas like Phoenix and Gilbert, sellers are adjusting expectations, which is healthy in a high-interest environment.
Let’s also not forget context. Since February 2020, Phoenix home values have surged 53%, outpacing the national 45% average. A little softening now doesn’t erase years of solid equity growth.
What About That “Massive Pileup” of Inventory?
Gerli paints a picture of 18,701 listings as a crisis. But raw numbers don’t tell the full story.
What matters more is “months of supply”—how long it would take to sell the current inventory at today’s sales pace. A balanced market sits between 4 and 6 months.
- Phoenix: 3.39 months
- Scottsdale: 4.24 months
- Paradise Valley: 6.23 months
Far from a glut, this data suggests we’re easing into balance—where neither buyer nor seller holds all the power. That’s stability, not collapse.
Foreclosures? Not the Whole Story
Newsweek highlights one Laveen foreclosure, where a home sold for $289,500 after listing for $431,000 in 2022. Yes, that’s a big drop—but it’s also an outlier. As of now, Maricopa County has seen only 1,300 foreclosures—a fraction of the 50,000+ during the 2008 crash.
That’s not a wave. That’s a ripple.
Buyer Fatigue—or Buyer Patience?
Another quote from the article:
“Buyers have developed such a fatigue,” Gerli claims, suggesting they’ve lost interest entirely. But here’s what we know:
- Homes in Phoenix are taking 51 days to sell on average—up from 42 last year.
- In Glendale, it’s 50 days—up from 34.
That’s not fatigue. That’s discernment. With more options and 7% mortgage rates, buyers are simply taking their time. And they should.
Let’s Talk Economic Fundamentals
The real estate market doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Phoenix’s broader economic picture matters—and it’s strong.
- Population boom: 80,000 new residents in 2024 alone
- Unemployment: Just 3.5%
- TSMC’s $165B chip plant investment: Bringing high-paying jobs and long-term growth
- Inflation: A low 1.6% in December 2024—well below national averages
- Business growth: 54% rise in new business applications
This isn’t just a real estate story. It’s a regional growth story. And it’s far from over.
So, What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re buying: This is your moment. More inventory, negotiable prices, and a leveling market give you the leverage. Especially in areas like Paradise Valley, where it’s shifted into a buyer’s market.
If you’re selling: It’s not 2021. But priced right, staged well, and marketed with strategy? Your home will sell. We’re not crashing—we’re correcting.
And if you’re just watching? Don’t let fear drive your understanding. There’s more happening here than a headline can hold.
Yes, the Phoenix market is softening. But it’s softening into strength—not collapse.
