By Jaki Underwood, Editor-in-Chief
Is Arizona still a seller’s market? That’s the question I’m hearing more often lately—from clients, colleagues, even casual conversations at the grocery store. And the answer? It’s no longer black and white.
According to the latest Cromford® Market Index (CMI), Arizona’s real estate market is entering a more nuanced phase—one where location, timing, and local dynamics matter more than ever. Some areas are tightening up, giving sellers the upper hand. Others are cooling or balancing, creating new space for buyers to re-enter the conversation. Let’s break it down together.
Where Sellers Still Have the Advantage
When we look at the numbers, a few cities clearly stand out as seller strongholds—places where demand is climbing, inventory is shrinking, and well-positioned homes are still commanding top dollar.
Take Paradise Valley, for example. It saw a dramatic 33% spike in its CMI, now sitting at 148.3. That’s deep in seller’s market territory. Add to that a Market Action Index (MAI) of 33 and just 23 active listings, and you have a classic case of supply-and-demand imbalance. For sellers, this is an ideal window—homes here are moving fast, often with strong offers. For buyers? Preparation is key. Come pre-approved, come informed, and be ready to compete.
Next up is Goodyear, a West Valley city gaining quiet momentum. The data shows a 2% rise in its CMI and a steady MAI of 36. Though inventory remains higher at 556 homes, the trend is worth watching. What’s fueling the shift? Ongoing development, new infrastructure, and relative affordability compared to Phoenix. That said, buyers should be cautious: a reported $15,000 median list price is almost certainly a data glitch. Always verify pricing with a trusted local agent or title partner.
Markets Starting to Shift: More Balance, More Negotiation
Other cities are telling a different story—one of deceleration, normalization, or even the early signs of a buyer’s market.
Avondale is one such case. Its CMI dropped by 14%, landing at 97.6. That’s technically neutral territory. Inventory held steady at 226 homes, and the MAI remains at 38—still seller-favored, but trending downward. Sellers in Avondale are beginning to adjust their expectations. For buyers, that opens the door for more strategic negotiations and a less pressured pace.
We’re seeing similar signals in Fountain Hills, a market known for its high-end appeal and scenic properties. CMI declined 7% to 109.5, while the MAI edged down from 33 to 32. Inventory sits at 152 listings. The takeaway? Pricing is flattening, and sellers may need to lean into what makes their property unique—think views, upgrades, lifestyle potential. For buyers, this is a chance to secure a luxury home with more flexibility than we’ve seen in recent months.
Where the Playing Field Is Leveling Out
Markets like Glendale are walking a fine line—still technically favoring sellers, but offering buyers more breathing room. Glendale’s CMI ticked up 2%, while its MAI dipped slightly from 40 to 38. Inventory is on the higher side, with 589 active listings. That means buyers have options. You’re not likely to find deep discounts here, but you can afford to be thoughtful—evaluate homes, compare amenities, and make confident offers.
For sellers, it’s a matter of standing out. Pricing competitively, investing in presentation (professional photos, staging, curb appeal), and highlighting value are essential strategies in a market that’s no longer automatically working in your favor.
Markets to Keep an Eye On
A few cities are hovering in a gray area—neither heating up nor cooling off significantly, but worth watching closely:
- Queen Creek and Maricopa, which have drawn buyers for affordability, saw small CMI declines (2% and 3%). Still attractive, but activity is softening.
- Scottsdale saw a 1% dip in its CMI, signaling potential stabilization in the luxury market.
- Phoenix, the state’s largest market, dropped 3%—a signal that ripple effects could be on the horizon.
- On the flip side, Cave Creek posted a 4% gain in its CMI, showing steady growth in its unique, high-desert lifestyle niche.
While complete inventory and MAI data isn’t available for each of these areas, the CMI trends alone give us helpful clues about market sentiment and movement.
What This Means for You
So, what does it all add up to?
If you’re buying:
- In Paradise Valley or Goodyear, be decisive and well-prepared.
- In Avondale or Fountain Hills, take your time and negotiate from a place of strength.
- In Glendale, leverage your options without losing sight of the long game.
If you’re selling:
- Paradise Valley is your moment—lean in.
- Goodyear presents opportunity, but your story (and your pricing) needs to be compelling.
- In more balanced areas like Glendale or cooling ones like Avondale and Fountain Hills, it’s all about differentiation and strategy.
Final Thoughts
We’re in a different kind of market now—one that doesn’t belong solely to buyers or sellers. It’s a calibrated market, and that makes insight and preparation more important than ever. No matter where you are in your real estate journey, the key is to lead with data, not assumptions. That’s how you stay grounded—and how you win in any market.
