By Jaki Underwood, Editor-in-Chief
It’s a bright Saturday morning in Phoenix. The open house signs are out, but something feels different. Buyers are strolling through homes without the usual urgency. No panicked bidding wars, no escalating offers written on napkins. Instead, there’s a sense of ease. The Arizona real estate market, once dominated by frantic competition, is shifting. For the first time in years, buyers have the upper hand.
If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy, that moment may be now. The latest data from the Cromford Report—one of Arizona’s most trusted real estate market analysts—confirms it. The balance of power in housing is changing. And that shift is picking up speed.
A Market in Transition
For years, Arizona’s housing market has been like a seesaw with sellers in control. Limited inventory and high demand left buyers scrambling for any available home. But now, that dynamic is reversing. Thirteen cities in the ARMLS region have seen conditions worsen for sellers in the past month, while only four cities have shown improvement.
The Cromford Market Index , which measures whether buyers or sellers hold the advantage, has dropped 2.7% on average. Last week, the Index hit 100 for the first time since 2011, signaling the end of a decade-long housing shortage.
But here’s where it gets interesting: while supply is rising, demand is dropping—19% below normal levels. This means there are 24% more homes on the market than there are buyers to snap them up. And it’s happening at the peak of buying season. Why are buyers hesitating? Let’s break it down.
Where the Best Deals Are
Not every city is experiencing the shift equally. Some areas remain strongholds for sellers, while others are emerging as prime opportunities for buyers looking to negotiate. Avondale, Glendale, and Maricopa are still leaning in favor of sellers, with Avondale seeing a 12% improvement for sellers over the past month and Glendale and Maricopa each posting a 4% gain.
But for buyers, cities like Tempe, Goodyear, and Queen Creek offer major negotiating power. Tempe, in particular, is leading the shift, while Peoria just entered a buyer’s market, with the CMI dipping below 90%, giving buyers more leverage than they’ve had in years.
Nine cities are still in seller’s market territory, two are balanced, and six now firmly favor buyers. If you’re looking to buy, Tempe and Peoria could be your best bet. If you’re selling, pricing strategy is more critical than ever.
For Buyers: Your Window of Opportunity
Picture this—you’re Sarah, a first-time homebuyer in Phoenix. For months, you’ve been outbid or priced out. But this past weekend, something changed. The open house in Tempe wasn’t packed. You had time to walk through, ask questions, and, most importantly negotiate.
With fewer buyers competing, you can ask for closing cost assistance, request repairs instead of accepting a home “as-is,” and take your time deciding no rushed decisions. But don’t fall into the “waiting game” trap, thinking prices will drop even further. The best time to buy is when you find a home that fits your needs at a price you can afford
The Strategy Has Changed
Now, meet John. He’s selling his Goodyear home and expected multiple offers within days. But so far? Crickets. For sellers, overpricing is risky in this shifting market. A home that lingers too long will eventually needs a price reduction. Sellers should price competitively from the start, work with an agent who understands local trends, and stage their home to stand out from growing inventory
One bright spot? Homes priced over $3 million are still in high demand, defying market softening.
The Price Puzzle
Despite the shift toward buyers, home prices haven’t dropped significantly—yet. Luxury homes over $10 million have seen a 10.9% increase in price per square foot, while homes in the $3 million–$5 million range are up 2.7%. Even the $350,000–$400,000 range has managed a 2.5% increase.
Mortgage Rates: The Wild Card
Could mortgage rates flip the script? Possibly—but don’t expect a dramatic drop. Inflation remains at 2.8%, above the Fed’s 2% target, and the federal funds rate sits between 4.25% and 4.5%. As a result, 30-year mortgage rates are currently hovering between 6.65% and 6.78%. Most forecasts predict that rates will slowly decline to around 6.5% by late 2025—a modest shift that could encourage more buyers but won’t create a frenzy.
Navigating the New Normal
Arizona’s housing market is at a turning point. The frantic bidding wars are over, and for the first time in years, buyers have leverage. If you’re buying, now is the time to take advantage of increased inventory and negotiating power before sellers fully adjust to the shift. If you’re selling, understanding the market in your specific city and pricing your home competitively is key. This market isn’t about panic or hesitation—it’s about being informed and making the right moves at the right time. And right now, buyers hold the keys.
