By Jaki Underwood, Editor -in-Chief
Spring 2025 has arrived in Greater Phoenix, and the housing market is showing signs of cooling off. For the first time in a while, buyers are starting to gain the upper hand—but not everywhere, and not in the same way. Underneath the headlines and average prices lies a much more complex and revealing story, shaped by neighborhood dynamics and the way we interpret the numbers.
To check the market’s mood, we turn to the Cromford Market Index (CMI)—real estate’s version of a thermometer. A CMI above 100 signals a seller’s market; below 100, it’s buyer-friendly. Today, Greater Phoenix sits at 78, tipping the scale toward buyers. But the decline hasn’t hit all areas equally.
In Avondale, the CMI has seen a 7% jump in the last month. In nearby Buckeye, the index surged 9%, signaling renewed seller activity in these more affordable cities. Glendale, Surprise, and Queen Creek are also seeing modest increases. Meanwhile, Tempe’s CMI fell 15%, and Scottsdale’s dropped 8% as pricier markets continue to cool. The regional average is down 2.8% month-over-month, following a 2.7% drop the previous week.
This divergence sets the stage for a tale of two markets: one driven by affordability and entry-level demand, and another weighed down by high-end inventory and more selective buyers.
Prices, of course, are a key part of the conversation. The average sales price across Greater Phoenix is down 1% year-over-year, now sitting at $528,414 (down from $534,696). In North Scottsdale’s 85255 zip code, however, the average sales price has climbed 18% to a staggering $2,109,785. At first glance, this suggests a luxury boom amid a regional slowdown. But averages can be deceptive.
That’s where price per square foot comes in—a more precise metric that adjusts for home size and provides a clearer picture of what’s typical in the market. Even more helpful is the median price per square foot, which avoids being skewed by outlier sales.
In March 2025, the average price per square foot across Greater Phoenix is down 1% year-over-year. The median price per square foot, however, has increased by 1.6%, now at $262.34. In Scottsdale’s 85255 zip code, the average price per square foot mirrors the 18% jump in sales price, but the median has risen only 3.4% to $478.93.
The takeaway? A few ultra-luxury homes are inflating the averages, but most homes are experiencing much more modest gains. That’s why experts recommend focusing on the median—it offers a more accurate gauge of market conditions.
Overall, the median sales price for the region has dropped from $465,000 to $445,000 in just five weeks. With more homes on the market and demand growing only slowly, buyers have more choices and negotiating power. Sellers, especially in higher-end areas, may need to temper their expectations.
Looking ahead, the market may continue to cool unless mortgage rates fall or buyer demand sees a sudden surge. Until then, the Greater Phoenix housing landscape will remain varied and hyper-local. Whether you’re exploring a starter home in Buckeye or listing a luxury property in Scottsdale, understanding the nuances behind the numbers is more important than ever.
